Score Gaps Everywhere: RaceEasy's Picks Across a Busy Tuesday Card

Tuesday's racing spans Ffos Las, Carlisle, Newmarket, Clonmel, and Southwell, and what jumps out across the data is how frequently RaceEasy's model scores diverge sharply from market pricing — in some races, that gap runs to eight or more places. Here are the five races where the numbers tell the most distinctive story.

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**Carlisle 13:52 — Class 4 Hurdle**

RaceEasy's Win Pick is Bel Amigo (totalScore 54), and the model ranks it first by score despite a market rank of 2 — a gap that isn't enormous in isolation, but the underlying data is emphatic. Bel Amigo carries the CD badge (a course-and-distance winner at Carlisle), and its going suitability sub-score comes in at a perfect 10/10. That combination of proven course-and-distance form and optimal ground conditions gives it the highest total score in this race by some distance. Market leader Caballo de Guerra (scoreRank 2) also scores a 10/10 going suitability rating and is RaceEasy's Each-Way pick, but no CD badge. Further back, Winds of Winter sits at scoreRank 4 versus a market rank of 6 — the model sees it two places ahead of where the market places it, driven by a 10/10 going suitability score of its own.

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**Carlisle 14:27 — Class 3 Chase**

This five-runner contest throws up one of the day's sharpest score-versus-market mismatches. Walk On Quest holds the top score in the race (totalScore 51, scoreRank 1) yet sits at market rank 5 — the model ranks it four places ahead of where the market has it, flagged here explicitly because the gap meets RaceEasy's threshold. The course specialist bonus underpins that score. Despite this, RaceEasy's Win Pick is Dare To Shout (scoreRank 2, marketRankInRace 1), which carries the CD badge, a headgear factor of 9/10, and a course specialist designation — the model rewards the weight of those combined flags. Sir Carnegie, meanwhile, sits at scoreRank 5 versus a market rank of 3, and its class factor reads 0/10, a meaningful contrast to its market position.

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**Clonmel 14:10 — Class Handicap Hurdle, 19 runners**

RaceEasy's Win Pick Pahlavi (totalScore 51, scoreRank 1, marketRankInRace 1) is one of the day's cleaner market-score alignments at the top, backed by a distance strike rate of 10/10 and proven trip form. The Each-Way interest is more striking: Good Bye Milan scores at rank 2 by the model but sits at market rank 18 — a gap of 16 places, one of the largest single divergences across today's entire card. Its distance strike rate also reads 10/10. Romella registers at scoreRank 3 versus market rank 17, supported by a course specialist bonus of 8/10. Neither of those horses is where the market expects them to be, and the model's reasoning is grounded in named sub-scores, not noise.

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**Newmarket 15:30 — Class 5 Flat, 15 runners**

RaceEasy's Win Pick is Caragio (totalScore 57, scoreRank 1), the highest single-race total score across all Newmarket flat contests today. The model places it first, but the market has it third — a two-place gap the data makes explicit, driven by a recent form factor of 10/10. Each-Way pick Eazy On The Eye sits at scoreRank 2 with a class factor of 10/10 and lines up closely with the market at rank 2. The more notable divergence belongs to Ice Cube (scoreRank 3, marketRankInRace 1), which the model places behind both picks — its headgear factor of 6/10 is the primary positive flag, but the overall score sits below Caragio's by 12 points.

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**Carlisle 16:12 — Listed Hurdle**

The day's highest-class jumps race, and RaceEasy's model produces a clear scoreRank 1 in Wilful (totalScore 48, marketRankInRace 1) — market and model in agreement at the top. The Each-Way pick, Mirabad (scoreRank 2, marketRankInRace 4), is where the model diverges from the market: it sits two places ahead of its market position, backed by a headgear factor of 7/10 following a wind operation, and proven Class 1 Handicap form. Golden Ace presents the starkest divergence in this field — scoreRank 5 versus a market rank of 2, with class factor 10/10 as its chief positive, but a total score of 44 against Wilful's 48 and Mirabad's 47. The model sees Golden Ace three places lower than the market does, and that gap is reported here as the data presents it.

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RaceEasy's picks across today's card are grounded in score, named sub-factors, and market-vs-model rank gaps — not tipster instinct. Check back for results as today's racing unfolds.