Score vs Market: RaceEasy's Biggest Model-vs-Market Splits Across Today's Card

Today's racing spans Killarney, Pontefract, Stratford, Yarmouth, Fairyhouse, Kempton and Wolverhampton, and RaceEasy's scoring model is throwing up some sharp divergences from market pricing. Here are the races where the data is doing the most work.

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**Killarney 13:00 — Maiden, Yielding To Soft**

The headline number here is Lake Lugano, scored top of the 13-runner field with a totalScore of 50 — yet the market has her priced as the fifth choice. That scoreRank 1 vs marketRankInRace 5 gap is one of the cleanest splits on today's card, and RaceEasy names her as the Each-Way pick. The model flags a headgear factor of 8/10 for the first-time headgear, which is the primary driver lifting her to the top of the scoring order under Willie Lordan for Aidan O'Brien. RaceEasy's Win Pick is Darivan (totalScore 41, scoreRank 5), ridden by Ben Coen for J.P. Murtagh — but note that the model places Darivan fifth by score while the market prices him second, a scoreRank 5 vs marketRankInRace 2 divergence. The trainer course form factor for Murtagh at Killarney is 3/10, one of the sub-scores pulling at Darivan's total. Worth being clear-eyed about: RaceEasy's scoring puts four horses ahead of the Win Pick in this race.

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**Killarney 15:20 — Listed Race, Yielding To Soft**

The day's highest-class race on the Irish card and one where the model's view differs from the market at the top. Magnum Cor (totalScore 60, scoreRank 1) carries a headgear factor of 6/10 on first-time headgear and is RaceEasy's Win Pick under J.M. Sheridan for Joseph Patrick O'Brien — the model ranks him first despite the market pricing him third (scoreRank 1 vs marketRankInRace 3). Back Straight is the Each-Way pick (totalScore 51, scoreRank 2), with a recent form factor of 7/10 for Seamie Heffernan and M.D. O'Callaghan, and a scoreRank 2 vs marketRankInRace 7 gap that represents the model identifying meaningful value at a bigger price. Course specialist Manton Bay is the market's top choice but sits only third in the scoring (scoreRank 3 vs marketRankInRace 1), carrying a course specialist bonus of 4/10 — present in the model, but not enough to overhaul the top two scores.

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**Pontefract 14:40 — Class 5, 14 runners, Good**

This is the race where RaceEasy's model produces its most layered set of picks. Invincible Boy holds both the CD badge (course-and-distance winner) and a headgear factor of 10/10 for first-time headgear — and yet sits at scoreRank 1 with a marketRankInRace of 5. That's the model's Each-Way pick and simultaneously its Longshot flag. Veydari also carries the CD badge and scores second by the model (scoreRank 2 vs marketRankInRace 6). Fiscal Policy, RaceEasy's Win Pick, carries the CD badge and a draw bias of 10/10, and is the only one of these three CD badge holders that the market prices near the top — but the model has it third by score (scoreRank 3 vs marketRankInRace 1). Three CD badge holders in a 14-runner field, with the two highest-scoring sitting at market ranks 5 and 6 respectively, is the kind of spread that RaceEasy's scoring is specifically built to surface.

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**Kempton (AW) 17:45 — Class 5, Standard/Slow**

Sax Avoidance is the standout score on the Kempton evening card: totalScore 72 against a field where the next-best runner checks in at 58. The model flags proven Class 5 form, a CD badge, and a going suitability of 10/10 — yet the market prices Sax Avoidance third (scoreRank 1 vs marketRankInRace 3). Kieren Fox rides for Charlie Pike. RaceEasy's Each-Way pick Impossible Mission (totalScore 58, scoreRank 2) also holds a Class 5 win at this level and a class factor of 10/10, though sits at marketRankInRace 7 — another scoreRank 2 vs marketRankInRace 7 divergence. Longshot Katalyst carries the CD badge and a going suitability of 10/10 from scoreRank 4 at a market rank of 9.

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**Kempton (AW) 18:45 — Class 4, Standard/Slow**

French Affair arrives with the top score of the race (totalScore 66), a first-time headgear factor of 10/10, and proven Class 4 form — RaceEasy's Win Pick ridden by David Egan for Jennie Candlish. The model ranks her first while the market has her second, a one-place gap, making this the tightest model-market alignment among the evening feature picks. Wyle Cop is the Each-Way pick (totalScore 55, scoreRank 2) at a market rank of 8 — scoreRank 2 vs marketRankInRace 8 — with a going suitability of 10/10. Longshot Merrimack (totalScore 52, scoreRank 4) also carries a going suitability of 10/10 and sits at marketRankInRace 9. The model's top four scores in this race all sit outside the top three in the market — a consistent pattern across the Kempton evening card that RaceEasy's scoring is flagging repeatedly.