Score Over Market: RaceEasy's Data-Led Guide to a Packed Day Across Newmarket, Ascot, Gowran and Beyond

Tuesday's card stretches from Newmarket to Southwell via Ascot, Redcar, Fontwell and Gowran Park, and RaceEasy's model throws up some sharp score-vs-market divergences that deserve close attention. Here are the races where the numbers tell the clearest story.

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**Newmarket 13:35 — Group 1**

The day's most prestigious race is also one of its most intriguing from a scoring perspective. RaceEasy's Win Pick is **Blue Bolt**, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Colin Keane, who tops the model rankings with a totalScore of 50 and a perfect recent form factor of 10/10. Market and model agree on the favourite here, so no divergence to flag. What the model does flag elsewhere in the field is striking: **City of Memphis** (scoreRank 5, marketRankInRace 2) sits second in the market but fifth on model score despite also posting a recent form factor of 10/10 — the model ranks it five places below where the market has it. Similarly, **Kon Tiki**, RaceEasy's Each-Way pick ridden by Marco Ghiani for Jane Chapple-Hyam, sits scoreRank 2 despite a marketRankInRace of 5 — a three-place gap the model considers meaningful. **Calendar Girl** (scoreRank 6, marketRankInRace 3) carries a course specialist flag and a course specialist bonus of 4/10, but the model places her six places below her market position. In a Group 1 with scores compressed between 45 and 50, the model sees a different shape to this race than the market does.

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**Ascot 15:00 — Group 3**

This is one of the day's standout races for RaceEasy's scoring signal. **Prince of India**, trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Pat Dobbs, leads the model with a totalScore of 67 — the highest of any runner in this race — and carries four hard flags: Course specialist, CD badge (a course-and-distance winner), first-time headgear with a headgear factor of 9/10, and proven at the highest handicap level. Despite all of that, the market ranks him second, making this a scoreRank 1 vs marketRankInRace 2 gap. RaceEasy's Each-Way pick **Sayidah Dariyan** (scoreRank 2, marketRankInRace 6) is also wearing first-time headgear, scoring a headgear factor of 6/10, and the model places her four spots above where the market has her. Equally notable: **Division** is marketRankInRace 1 but sits only scoreRank 4, with a fitness concern flagged — the model ranks it four places lower than the market does, a gap that is the model's clearest factual statement about this race's structure.

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**Ascot 15:35 — Class 2 Handicap (18 runners)**

The biggest flat field of the day, and RaceEasy has a Win Pick, Each-Way pick and a Longshot in play. **Thunder Call** (totalScore 63, scoreRank 1, marketRankInRace 1) is the model's top-rated runner and carries a CD badge, a recent form factor of 10/10, and a proven record at Class 2 handicap level — market and model align. The Each-Way pick **Moonfall** (scoreRank 2, marketRankInRace 2) also carries a course specialist flag and a Class 2 proven flag, so the top two in the model match the market's top two. The Longshot is where the model diverges sharply: **Hickory** (scoreRank 5, marketRankInRace 14) carries a CD badge, a course specialist flag, and a Class 2 proven flag, yet sits nine places further back in the market than the model ranks it — a scoreRank 5 vs marketRankInRace 14 gap is as wide a divergence as you'll find on the day's flat cards, and RaceEasy surfaces it explicitly as the Longshot flag.

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**Ascot 16:10 — Class 2 Handicap (14 runners)**

**Maelstrom**, trained by Stuart Williams and ridden by apprentice Jack Dace, heads RaceEasy's model with a totalScore of 64, a CD badge, a course specialist flag, and a Class 2 proven record. The model ranks it first (scoreRank 1) while the market has it third (marketRankInRace 3). RaceEasy's Each-Way pick and Longshot both resolve to **Havana Hurricane** (scoreRank 3, marketRankInRace 7) — a course specialist carrying a CD badge, ranked four places higher by the model than the market suggests. **Gold Star Hero** sits marketRankInRace 2 but is only scoreRank 5, a four-place gap that the model flags without editorial gloss.

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**Gowran Park 15:40 — Grade 3 Chase**

This six-runner Grade 3 chase at Gowran Park is the day's most striking example of model-market inversion at the top. **D Art D Art**, trained by Thomas Cooper and ridden by Ricky Doyle, is RaceEasy's Each-Way pick and the model's top-ranked runner with a totalScore of 57, a course specialist flag, and a trainer course form rating of 10/10. The model ranks it first (scoreRank 1) but the market places it fifth (marketRankInRace 5) — a four-place gap. Meanwhile, RaceEasy's Win Pick **Shadow Paddy** (scoreRank 2, totalScore 56) posts a perfect recent form factor of 10/10 and sits third in the market. At the other end, **Vicar Street**, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Harry Cobden, is the market's pick (marketRankInRace 1) but the model's third-ranked runner (scoreRank 3) — a two-place gap the model registers factually, with a fitness concern also attached.

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RaceEasy's model sees today's card differently to the market in a significant number of races — from the Group 1 at Newmarket where the market's second favourite is the model's fifth, to the big Ascot handicap where a 14th-in-the-market runner carries a CD badge and three course-related flags. All picks and data points referenced above are RaceEasy's own model output. This is not betting advice.